Tisza party takes the lead

For the first time, the Publicus Institute sees the largest formation of the opposition camp as the most popular political party in Hungary, both among the population as a whole and among safe voters. In the survey commissioned by the socialist daily ‘Népszava’, the Tisza party has 24% of all voters behind it, while Fidesz-KDNP still have 23%. Among determined voters, the lead of Péter Magyar’s party even reaches two points, in this survey the Tisza party is ahead with 39%, followed by Fidesz with 37%.

Among the other parties, the Publicus Institute sees only the DK as safe in the next parliament, which was measured at 8%. The right-wing Mi Hazánk and the joke party MKKP (4% each) would fall just short of the 5% hurdle, the liberal Momentum and the socialist MSZP (2% each) as well as the conservative Jobbik and the green LMP (1% each) are far from re-entering parliament, while the left-wing Párbeszéd is no longer measured. The Sunday poll showed an unusually high willingness to vote of 82% (!).

Head to head

Research Centre 21 (21KK) had just seen the Tisza party take the lead in its Sunday poll. For the time being, however, this ‘only’ applies to the determined voters; in the overall population, Fidesz-KDNP are still the frontrunners with 29%, three points ahead of their new challenger. However, according to 21KK, the Tisza party has gathered an unprecedented 42% (!) of decided voters behind it, while Fidesz has 40% in this comparison. In contrast to the Publicus survey, it is not DK but Mi Hazánk that comes third in this poll, with 5%. DK and MKKP follow with 4%, while the other parties are in a distant second place.

Magyar: ‘We are writing history!’

The leader of the Tisza party commented on the news on social media on Wednesday with the words: ‘We are making history. There hasn’t been anything like this for 18 years.’ And Péter Magyar went one better, saying that this is the message from Hungarians that the Orbán system is finished. It is finished because Fidesz is unable to overcome the economic and moral crisis of its own making and the existential crisis of many people. Because the Orbán government cannot access EU funds. ‘It’s over, the majority of Hungarians want a new government.’ And Magyar did not forget to add that the 21KK was the most accurate among election researchers in predicting the outcome of the European elections on 9 June.

Nézőpont: Everything as before

Meanwhile, the pro-government Nézőpont Institute continues to put Fidesz-KDNP clearly in the lead. According to the latest poll, the governing parties received 36% of the vote in the overall population, eleven points more than the Tisza party. Among safe voters, as many as 49% (!) are in favour of Fidesz and only 34% for the challenger. In this survey, too, only Mi Hazánk (5%) would remain as the third force in the next parliament, with MKKP and DK narrowly failing to reach the 5% threshold. Nézőpont is the only institute to analyse the possible distribution of seats after the elections, according to which Fidesz-KDNP would receive 46% and the Tisza party 35%. However, Mi Hazánk (6%) and DK (5%) would also return to parliament in 2026.

Mockery from the head of the Fidesz parliamentary group

The conservative daily ‘Magyar Nemzet’ refers to the fact that the Publicus Institute predicted a victory for the broad opposition alliance under Péter Márki-Zay in 2022 – the result, as is well known, was another two-thirds majority for Fidesz. Máté Kocsis, leader of the parliamentary group of the party that has been in power without interruption since 2010, made fun of the 21KK Institute’s forecast on social media. After its director András Pulai had already rowed back in a podcast that the latest forecast was within the margin of error, Kocsis wrote mockingly: ‘I was sent the 21KK opinion poll for next February. According to it, the DK is at 47%, the Tisza party at 65% and Fidesz at 6%. The survey also showed that the AI-generated photos of Péter Magyar are less popular with women than free recitations by Ferenc Gyurcsány. The institute noted that following the trend, Fidesz should end up at minus 17 or 18 per cent in 2026.’