OECD forecasts 2-3% growth

This is shown by the OECD’s latest forecast, which assumes that, measured against the ambitious targets set by the Orbán government, smaller rolls will continue to be baked in this country. While the OECD expects the global economy to grow by 3.2-3.3% in 2024-26, which is almost identical to the G20 forecast, the Hungarian economy will grow by 2.1% to 2.9% in 2026 after a meagre 0.6% in the current year. However, this will make the country a locomotive, at least within the OECD – whose growth figures have been set at 1.7-1.9%.

Compared to the DACH countries, this is hardly more growth power than rich Switzerland can produce (from 1.3% to 1.5% to 1.9%). According to the OECD, however, the poor country is catching up a little with its neighbour Austria, where a mini recession (-0.5%) was followed by a modest recovery to 1.1% and 1.4%. Germany, Hungary’s most important trading partner, only narrowly escaped the recession this year (0.0%), but also barely grew in the following years (by 0.7% and 1.2% respectively).

In the group of Visegrád states (V4), Hungary is falling further behind with its dismal performance. The OECD still expects the Czech Republic to grow by 1.0% in 2024, which could rise to 2.6% from 2.4%. Slovakia remains fairly stable at around 2-2.5% over the forecast horizon, while Poland could mark the peak value in the region with 3.4% in 2025 and will also grow close to 3% this year and the following year.