The ovation given to the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) prime ministerial candidate Attila Mesterházy’s speech on Saturday, 20 February brought back memories of Ferenc Gyurcsány’s triumphant debut as prime ministerial candidate that instantly won over MSZP supporters at the party congress in September 2004.



Mesterházy is not yet at the same level as Gyurcsány was in terms of maturity of political ideas and oratory skills, but he appears increasingly comfortable at centre stage.
In his speech Mesterházy introduced the Socialists’ new platform, attacked Jobbik (and by extension Fidesz), and expanded on the “one camp” principle earlier mentioned by party chairwoman Ildikó Lendvai.

MSZP appears more austere

The MSZP announced several policy plans that it shares with Fidesz, for example the selection of strategic sectors of industry, the need to regulate the money markets more tightly, and plans to increase employment. A significant difference, however, is that the MSZP emphasises maintaining budgetary austerity, and intends to apportion the much-cited HUF 2,000 billion which the government expects from economic growth in the years ahead.

Fidesz’s programme is far from being etched in stone, but it appears chairman Viktor Orbán would give his government and Hungarian businesses room for manoeuvre through a controlled deficit increase in the first few years. According to Orbán, meanwhile, the deficit figure will not be sustainable because certain amounts must be reassigned to given budgetary areas so that they can continue to function.



The anti-Jobbik power play

Mesterházy’s other key message concerned Jobbik. The MSZP says Jobbik is an extremist party that threatens Hungarian democracy and today treats the Roma as scapegoats. The aim of the Socialists is clearly to present itself as the strongest party of the democratic political camp and to garner the votes of those alarmed by Jobbik. As part of that strategy the MSZP continues to speak of Fidesz failing to take part in the struggle against extremist forces, although Orbán has clearly labelled the radical right party extremist in recent months. That it suits Fidesz to define the MSZP an extremist force is another issue.

Mesterházy called on Fidesz to stop obfuscating and to unite against Jobbik. The latter is particular significant because the Socialists could find themselves in a situation where Jobbik victories in certain constituencies could be prevented by MSZP representatives standing aside for Fidesz’s benefit before the second election round. The question is whether the MSZP will still advocate joining forces in such cases Mesterházy’s third important message was MSZP welcoming any voters who wish to surmount the economic, political and democratic crisis: underlining that they do not support the Hungarian Democratic Forum.

Three weeks to deadline

From that point of view 19 March will be of key importance since it will become clear how many candidates the individual parties can field, and which political forces can announce their regional lists ahead of 22 March. It should be noted that it is not necessary to field candidates in every constituency for a party to have as many as 20 regional lists and that this is not even needed to cross the 5% threshold to enter parliament; what is relevant, however, is how many counties it is possible to vote for on a party’s list.

Leadership questions remain

Mesterházy’s fourth and final message was that he is “breaking with the mistakes of the past”; even if he has not named those mistakes in his campaign speeches. His position is nowhere near strong enough for him to be regarded as the MSZP’s unquestioned leader, but a new core of support is starting to form around him: primarily because older party members are aware that by remaining at the top they will not secure either their own or the MSZP’s political survival, and many have realised that real power will have to be yielded to Mesterházy over time. The unknown quantity is Gyurcsány, however, who is taking part in the campaign in a disciplined way. In the longer term, however, it is not in the former premier’s interests for Mesterházy’s position to strengthen within the party. Prime Minister Gordon Bajnai’s authority earned in his own right could also be a potential risk to Gyurcsány if he is planning an attempt to regain leadership of the MSZP in the next four years.

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