A minority
government is one potential response to the current political crisis. This
solution, however, offers MSZP only limited relief, since such an
administration will not find it easy to push its policies through and will be
constantly forced to negotiate with the opposition. Below we review what room
for manoeuvre the Socialist government will have without a parliamentary
majority.
Controlling the agenda
The
functioning of parliament is the result of a political agreement within the
framework of the standing orders which usually takes place before the
constituent sitting. The standing orders grant the government considerable
privileges compared to MPs. The government’s motions, for example,
automatically enter the order book, whilst a committee decision is needed for
the same thing to happen with the motions of MPs. Since the committees work by
a majority principle, the government majority normally can effectively block
opposition motions at this stage. However, if the government has no automatic
majority in the committees, the likelihood can increase considerably that an
opposition initiative will be included in the order book. It also becomes more
probable that the opposition will get its own way on each committee resolution.
In
principle, being included in the order book does not guarantee that the motion
will actually be debated by the full house. Until now, even if an undesirable
proposal entered the order book, the government majority had the means to
prevent it from going on the agenda i.e. from being debated by the plenary
session. If it governs in the majority, the government, through the house speaker,
is capable of controlling what goes on the agenda and when, and what draft laws
the house debates. The House Committee passes its decisions by consensus,
however, if agreement is not reached, then the Speaker is entitled to put
forward the agenda – which the majority usually then carries. The government
would have less room for manoeuvre to control the parliamentary agenda in the
event of being a minority, since the plenum would not automatically carry the
agenda put forward by the Speaker.
The rights of the government
Although
the dividing line between opposition and government would be redrawn in
numerous respects if the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) were forced to govern
alone (the SZDSZ as an opposition party, for example, could put more questions
to the government), the MSZP in practice would not suffer a significant
disadvantage in terms of speaking in parliament. Moreover, if the debate takes
place within a fixed time frame, the regulations would favour the minority
government and disadvantage the opposition because the government and the
opposition are each granted the same amount of time. We can therefore expect
the number of debates within a fixed time frame to fall if the MSZP forms a
minority government.
Even as a
minority government, certain advantages remain in terms of debating items on
the agenda. For example, a member of the government may speak on an issue
outside the agenda at any time, and during the time of debate for an item on
the agenda, which is naturally an advantage over other MPs.
Losing a
stable majority, however, has a greater effect on voting: being forced to
govern as a minority not only affects debating and voting on draft laws and
resolutions, but also basic mechanisms such as the adoption of urgent motions,
requesting urgent enactment, or even discussion by the plenum of
interpellations not approved by the representatives. In the voting, a serious
problem can arise if every member of the opposition is present and votes. If
this is not the case, most motions could be passed by the majority of the
representatives present (and even the MSZP faction alone). However, unlike
earlier, the adoption of motions requiring the support of half of all
representatives is no longer automatic.
Opposition unavoidable
There are
two laws named in the constitution which parliament must adopt each year and
without which the state cannot function: the Budget Act and the Closing
Accounts Act. For a minority government this means having to form one-off
coalitions for the Budget Act, and reaching agreement with one of the
opposition parties with at least the necessary number of MPs to obtain a
majority. Even if agreement cannot be reached, the opposition cannot be
circumvented: according to the State Finances Act, in the absence of a Budget
Act a text must be adopted on extraordinary financing, so that the state can
continue to operate on the basis of the previous year until the new budget is
passed.
Balancing
We can see
that almost all the automatic advantages which theoretically assist a majority
government and ensure the ability to govern will disappear if the MSZP governs
as a minority. Every decision will require special negotiation and coming to
agreement with one of the opposition parties. Although this can seriously
hinder the process of governing, it does have the potential to increase
consensus. Nevertheless, the current political situation makes it more probable
that intense political conflicts and the struggling of the minority government
will result instead in greater cooperation.
